Tricks of Statistics
The discussion going on in our community and across the world is “reopening.” The numbers showing from the computer models tell us we should be concerned about opening too soon. Then again, maybe not.
Are you concerned that millions are going to die if we reopen? Do you think everything is good to go? We can look at the statistics and figure it out easily, right?
When it comes to the numbers we should be careful, as there can be many tricks involved that can manipulate the statistics. Several years ago I learned that statistics could be used to trick your audience into believing your message.
One of the first things I learned from my college statistics professor was this – give a group of people a bunch of numbers and they can make them say whatever you want them to say. It did not take long for me to realize the truth of that statement.
As of this past Sunday, the U.S. had 55, 341 reported COVID-19 deaths. That is bad, and we need to do something to flatten that curve and stop this pandemic. In fact, Italy was hit really hard and we here in the U.S. surpassed Italy’s number by more than double.
Not so fast. When you look at the numbers, the U.S. has a population of about 328.2 million, while Italy has a population of only 60.3 million. So, yes, it is true our death numbers are twice that of Italy’s, but our population is nearly 5.5 times that of Italy.
Japan can give us some interesting numbers for consideration regarding this current crisis. They did not lockdown the way many other nations did, and they have only had 360 deaths as of Sunday, even though they have a population of nearly 126.9 million, and Tokyo is one of the most densely populated cities in the world. The Japanese people are also a lot healthier overall than many other nations including the U.S.
Want some more numbers for consideration? Our 206,681 COVID-19 deaths in the world are a lot, but so are our more than 1.6 million deaths this year due to smoking and our nearly 800,000 deaths due to alcohol abuse so far this year. So, as of this past weekend, smoking deaths were nearly eight times higher and alcohol abuse deaths were nearly four times higher than COVID-19 deaths. Yet, in their ultimate wisdom, many elected officials saw fit to consider liquor stores and tobacco shops essential businesses to keep open while shutting down mom and pop shops all over main street America.
So far this year, there have been more deaths due to drinking contaminated water throughout the world than COVID-19. Cancer has taken more than 2.6 million of our loved ones this year. HIV/AIDS has taken 537,000 and traffic accidents have taken more than 431,000. I could go on, but in short the world has lost nearly 19 million humans in 2020.
I’m not making light of the deaths, as no one likes to lose their loved ones. I am, however, pointing out how you can use the numbers to create desired action on your audience one way or the other.
COVID-19 should not be taken lightly, and each one of us should do what we think is best for our families and ourselves. My caution is to consider all of the facts and figures, and make sure there are not any underlying biases in the numbers you see not just in this, but also in all things. After all, statistics can be tricky.
Randy Gibson is the CEO of RDG Communications Group, LLC, and the former director of the Tahlequah Area Chamber of Commerce and the Texas State Rifle Association.
